Assassination of Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei unlikely to succeed

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have announced the successful assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The operation has reportedly boosted their popularity among certain segments of the population.

Khamenei, 86, had been in poor health and was expected to step down soon due to his age. His death may seem like a significant achievement given the military might of the US and Israel. However, it is unclear whether this will lead to a more favorable outcome for Israeli and US interests.

Historical examples suggest that leadership assassinations do not typically result in peaceful outcomes in the Middle East. In Iraq, the capture and execution of Saddam Hussein led to the rise of pro-Iranian forces, which have since posed a threat to US and Israeli interests. Similarly, Israel’s attempts to assassinate Hamas leaders have often resulted in the election of more radical successors.

In the case of Hamas, the assassination of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi led to the emergence of Yahya Sinwar, who has been involved in recent attacks. Hezbollah also experienced a leadership vacuum after the assassination of its predecessor Abbas al-Musawi, but Israel failed to eliminate the underlying resistance movement.

The current lull in fighting may be short-lived, as the replacement for Khamenei is unlikely to be as open to negotiations as he was. The consequences of creating a security vacuum in Iran could be severe, particularly for US allies in Europe and the region. It remains to be seen what benefits Israel and the US stand to gain from their “decapitation” strategy in Iran.

Netanyahu has hailed the assassination as a success, but it is unclear whether this will have long-term benefits for Israeli interests. The situation in Iran is complex, and further developments are uncertain.

Source: Al Jazeera