Brazilian oil could benefit from increased global demand post-Iran conflict

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Brazilian Crude Imports to Asia Surge Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

China and India are increasing their imports of Brazilian crude oil as the Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to affect energy trade. The US-Israel war on Iran has led to increased shipping risks in the Gulf, causing Asian buyers to seek alternative suppliers.

According to data from Kpler, a trade intelligence firm, Brazil’s crude exports to Asia rose significantly between January and May this year. In 2025, Brazil exported approximately 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to Asia, but by the end of May, that number had increased to roughly 1.8 million bpd.

Brazil’s state-owned oil company, Petrobras, has redirected a significant portion of its exports towards Asian markets, where refiners are willing to pay more for crude that does not pass through the Gulf. Over 60% of Petrobras’ exports now go to China, while exports to the US have reportedly fallen to zero.

The shift in Brazil’s oil exports is benefiting the country’s economy. According to the OECD, rising crude prices are expected to support Brazil’s trade balance. The Ministry of Finance estimates that Brent crude reaching $100 per barrel would generate revenue equivalent to almost 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) above current budget projections.

China and India are driving much of the increase in Brazilian exports, with Chinese imports averaging about 1.316 million bpd between January and May this year, compared to about 704,000bpd in 2025. Indian imports also rose sharply, averaging about 238,000bpd between January and May, up from roughly 100,000bpd in 2025.

Analysts say that while Brazil cannot replace the Middle East as Asia’s main oil supplier, its crude has become increasingly attractive to refiners seeking to avoid supply shocks.

Source: Al Jazeera