Iran Crisis Enters New Phase Amid Global Food Security Concerns

Global Food Prices Expected to Rise as Conflict Continues

The impact of the ongoing conflict in Iran on global food prices has yet to be fully felt, according to analysts. Since the start of the war two months ago, fuel and fertilizer prices have surged worldwide. Economists and policymakers are now concerned about when and how hard the fallout will hit food costs.

Disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries a significant portion of global seaborne fertiliser and oil, is expected to play a major role in determining the severity of the impact. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that a prolonged crisis in the strait could lead to a global food “catastrophe”.

Several countries, including India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, and Egypt, are among those most at risk due to their reliance on imports. The World Food Programme has estimated that nearly 45 million more people could face acute food shortages if the conflict continues into the middle of the year.

While global food prices have risen modestly so far, with a 2.4% increase last month compared to February, analysts caution against interpreting recent price moves as a clear indication of future trends. Input shocks often transmit with a lag, and inventories, pre-purchased fertiliser, delayed pass-through, and uncertainty about duration can temporarily mute the effect.

The FAO has reported that global cereal production is at an all-time high, with predicted stocks reaching 951.5 million tonnes by the end of the 2026 farming season. However, experts warn that rising energy costs are already affecting food budgets in many low-income countries, and that households may be forced to shift away from staple foods such as fruits and vegetables.

The World Food Programme’s analysis suggests that the conflict has only affected food prices modestly so far, but that the true impact is yet to be felt. As the situation continues to unfold, it remains to be seen how hard the fallout will hit food costs worldwide.

Source: Al Jazeera