Irans axis in disarray after Supreme Leader Khameneis reported death

Tehran’s Proxies Face Dilemma Amid Iranian Leadership Vacuum

A US-Israeli air campaign targeting Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has resulted in his death and severely impacted Iran’s regional network of allies. The “axis of resistance” is now fragmented, with its key proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq facing a choice between retaliating against the US and Israel or prioritizing local survival.

Hezbollah, considered a crucial ally of Iran, has issued a statement condemning the attack as “criminal”. However, the language used suggests a defensive posture rather than an offensive one. The group’s secretary-general did not explicitly threaten to attack Israel or launch revenge operations, indicating a cautious approach due to a new strategic reality.

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria in late 2024 severed the “land bridge” that supplied Hezbollah, leaving the group physically isolated and paralysed. With top leaders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps killed alongside Khamenei, Hezbollah appears caught between a battered domestic front in Lebanon and a vacuum of orders from Tehran.

In Yemen, the Houthis face an even more volatile calculus. Their leader, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, declared his forces “fully prepared for any developments” but emphasized that “Iran is strong” and its response will be decisive. This rhetoric may be an attempt to deflect the immediate burden of war away from the Houthis.

The internationally recognized Yemeni government has sensed a shift in momentum and plans to launch a ground offensive to retake Houthi territory, which could leave the Houthis’ home front exposed to government forces backed by regional rivals. In Iraq, the situation is equally complex, with the country’s proxies facing a difficult decision between retaliating against the US and Israel or prioritizing local survival.

The Iranian government has promised to retaliate against the US and Israel “with a force they have never experienced before”. However, the reaction from its key proxies reveals a deep hesitation driven by local existential threats that may outweigh their ideological loyalty to a fallen leader.

Source: Al Jazeera