Israel Prepares for Potential Conflict with Turkey in Eastern Mediterranean

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Two high-level meetings took place in December, highlighting competing strategic visions in the Eastern Mediterranean and Levant. On December 22, Turkish officials met with Syrian counterparts in Damascus, while Israel hosted Greece and Cyprus for a trilateral meeting on energy cooperation and regional connectivity.

The trilateral framework between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus has expanded to include security coordination and military alignment, signaling a shift from economic competition to strategic containment. Cem Gurdeniz, a retired admiral, described the Turkish approach as an indirect containment strategy aimed at altering Ankara’s behavior, with the objective of narrowing Turkey’s strategic space.

The meeting in Israel was attended by Greek and Cypriot leaders, who have expressed concerns about Turkey’s role in the region. Muzaffer Senel, a visiting scholar of European studies, noted that all three actors have sought to create faits accomplis through unilateral initiatives in the region, perceiving Turkiye as a common rival.

The decision to hold the trilateral meeting in Israel was likely influenced by the shrinking diplomatic space available to Israeli leaders. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity, limiting his ability to travel abroad to countries that are signatories to the court.

The meeting also served as a means for Israel to recast Turkey as a regional problem through coded narratives of expansionist ambition. The trilateral framework has become increasingly important in light of these developments, with all parties seeking to advance their interests and secure their positions in the region.

Source: Al Jazeera