US and Iran at risk of prolonged frozen conflict over Middle East

US-Iran Conflict Enters Attrition Phase

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has entered a phase of attrition, with no permanent deal in sight. The war, which began two months ago, continues to disrupt global energy supplies due to competing blockades of the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations between the two sides appear deadlocked.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly stated that the US is still engaging with Iran on negotiations, but will not be rushed into making a bad deal. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump and his top security advisers discussed a new Iranian proposal to resolve the conflict. However, all military options remain on the table, despite a ceasefire in force since April 8.

Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has cautioned against the possibility of a “frozen conflict,” where the critical waterway is used as a pressure card amid the possibility of violent flare-ups. The US president has envisioned suspending a military campaign against Tehran while reserving the option of carrying out targeted strikes as needed.

Analysts say that in the absence of a permanent deal, a low-intensity conflict interspersed with periodic strikes offers a convenient way out – albeit one that prolongs regional instability and global economic disruption. Mehran Kamrava, an expert on Iran at Georgetown University, stated that “Iran cannot afford to have its ports blocked indefinitely and neither can the US maintain an indefinite blockade of Iran.”

The American foreign policy think tank Quincy Institute estimated that Washington’s costs incurred over the first month of the war were between $20bn and $25bn. A large-scale ground operation in Iran would require at least 500,000 personnel and some $55bn a month, or more than $650bn a year.

The US military has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and vessels since April 13, while Iran has also blocked the Strait of Hormuz to ships not paying a toll. The conflict has caused significant economic disruption, with the average price of petrol in the US reaching nearly $4.18 a gallon ($1.10 a litre).

Source: Al Jazeera