US involvement in Iran regime change to be limited to air support

US and Israel Launch Bombing Campaign Against Iran

Washington, DC - The United States and Israel launched a joint bombing campaign against Iran on Saturday. President Donald Trump stated that his objective is “freedom for the people.” Analysts say it would be challenging to bring down the Iranian system with air power alone.

According to Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank, achieving a sweeping political shift in Tehran without troops on the ground is unlikely. Grieco noted that the US may have secondary goals that could be achieved through air power, but regime change would require significant costs and ground involvement.

Trump told the Iranian people that their “moment of freedom” has arrived, suggesting that the US will take down the Iranian regime. Matthew Duss, executive vice president at the Center for International Policy, emphasized that air strikes alone cannot collapse the Iranian ruling system. He cited examples from Libya in 2011, where a NATO-led air campaign failed to achieve regime change without ground involvement.

The US has not ruled out involving ground troops in the conflict, which would pose risks to American forces and depart from Trump’s stated preference for swift military campaigns. A recent Reuters survey found that only about one-quarter of Americans support the war. Duss noted a contrast between this conflict and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which had more widespread public support.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth have articulated more modest goals, focusing on destroying Iran’s nuclear and drone programs as well as its navy. Hegseth emphasized that the bombing campaign will not lead to a “forever war.” Grieco noted that Trump’s objectives remain unclear, adding that the administration has not provided clear guidance on its goals.

As of now, there is no meaningful force on the ground capable of taking on the Islamic Republic system. The US has kept the door open for ground troop involvement, but this would likely increase risks to American forces and mark a significant departure from Trump’s stated approach.

Source: Al Jazeera