Yemens Houthi rebels remain neutral in Israel-US-Iran conflict for now

Yemen’s Houthi Movement Exercising Caution Amid Regional Turmoil

Sanaa, Yemen - The recent Israel-US attacks on Iran have triggered a wave of military escalation across the Middle East region, affecting multiple Arab cities including Abu Dhabi, Doha, Kuwait City, Manama, and Beirut. In contrast, Yemen has remained relatively quiet, with the Houthi movement, an Iran-allied de facto authority in northwestern Yemen, limiting its support for Tehran to rhetoric and a mass protest.

Since the start of Israel’s conflict on Gaza in October 2023, the Houthis have made repeated attacks on US and Israeli targets. However, since the US-Israeli attacks on Iran began on February 28, the group has adopted a more cautious approach. Analysts suggest that this restraint may be part of a strategy of patience.

Luca Nevola, senior analyst for Yemen and the Gulf at the ACLED conflict monitor, notes that Houthi intervention remains possible, with the potential for a phased escalation. At present, the main priority for the group is avoiding direct US and Israeli retaliation. Last August’s Israeli strikes killed at least 12 high-ranking Houthi officials, including Prime Minister Ahmed al-Rahawi and chief of staff Mohammed al-Ghumari, in air strikes in Sanaa.

The Houthi leadership appears to fear Israeli intelligence and the possibility of leadership decapitation. Nevola explains that if drawn into the conflict, the Houthis would likely resume attacks. Houthi chief Abdel-Malik al-Hothi stated that Yemen stands with Iran and the Muslim Iranian people, emphasizing that “hands are on the trigger” regarding military escalation.

Sadam al-Huraibi, a Yemeni political commentator, suggests that Tehran aims to save the Houthi group for future use. He believes the Houthis will enter the war if Iran requests it. Adel Dashela, a Yemeni researcher and non-resident fellow at Mesa Global Academy, notes that the Houthis do not want to officially declare war at present, as they seek to maintain their independence.

The Houthi movement remains capable of creating chaos in the Red Sea, where they have launched repeated attacks on shipping. They can also launch drones and missiles towards Israel. Nevola agrees with Dashela that ensuring long-term operational continuity from Yemen may become a strategic priority for the Houthis.

Source: Al Jazeera