Can NATO Survive If US Pulls Out Under Trump Administration?

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US President Donald Trump has expressed frustration with NATO allies over their decision not to join his military campaign against Iran. This move has deepened the rift within the transatlantic alliance, prompting questions about its long-term viability.

Trump’s disdain for NATO dates back to before his presidency, citing issues such as low defense spending and recent threats to take control of Greenland. The latest development has heightened tensions, with Trump labeling the lack of support a “stain on the alliance that will never disappear.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described the conflict as a “trans-Atlantic stress test.” Experts say this highlights a central question: can NATO survive, particularly if the US pulls out?

Trump cannot unilaterally withdraw the US from NATO without a two-thirds majority in the Senate or an act of Congress. However, he can take steps to reduce US involvement, such as relocating troops, closing military bases, and ceasing coordination with allies.

The treaty’s Article 5 states members’ collective defense obligation, but it does not automatically require a military response. There is skepticism among allies about whether the US would intervene in their defense.

European allies have responded by increasing defense spending, with member states’ expenditures rising by over 62% between 2020 and 2025. However, they still face challenges, including reliance on US capabilities such as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.

Experts acknowledge that filling these gaps will take time and significant investment – estimated at around $1 trillion. European defense industries are struggling to ramp up production quickly, and many armies struggle with recruitment and retention targets.

Some analysts believe a European-led NATO is possible, while others warn of the alliance’s fragility. The situation remains uncertain, with no clear resolution in sight.

Source: Al Jazeera