Gazas Future Uncertain After Ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon

US and Israel Ceasefire Talks Shift Focus to Gaza

A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been maintained since April 8, following weeks of tensions between the two nations. Meanwhile, a separate ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon is also in place. However, the situation in Gaza remains uncertain as Palestinians await news on whether the de-escalation on other fronts will lead to increased military activity or a more cautious approach by Israel.

The US and Iran have agreed to extend their ceasefire for three weeks, pending talks at the White House to reach a long-term deal that includes disarmament of the Iran-backed Hezbollah group. However, daily violations of the truce by Israel continue across southern Lebanon, where Israeli forces have established a “Yellow Line” demarcating the territory they occupy.

The situation in Gaza has been marked by relative calm, but concerns remain among Palestinians about the possibility of an all-out genocidal war returning to haunt them. The Israeli government has indicated its readiness to continue military operations in Gaza, raising fears that guns may fall silent on other fronts and lead to increased pressure on the enclave.

Analysts point to two main scenarios: either the calm on the Iranian and Lebanese fronts leads Israel to increase pressure on Gaza militally or regional and global factors could prevent Israel from resuming military operations. The path Israel chooses is seen as influenced by Hamas’s stance on Western demands that it disarm as a condition for the implementation of the second phase of the US-backed Israel-Hamas “ceasefire” in Gaza.

The second phase includes the formation of a national committee to govern Gaza, possible deployment of international forces, and talks on the future of weapons inside the enclave. Researchers have noted that reduced tensions elsewhere may free Israeli decision-making space and lower the cost of refocusing efforts on Gaza, making it more exposed to pressure.

Source: Al Jazeera