Investigations into situation in northern Nigeria continue

US-Led Counterterrorism Efforts in Northern Nigeria Spark Conspiracy Theories

In recent months, a surge in attacks in northern Nigeria has led to increased violence in the region. Many Nigerians have refused to acknowledge this reality and instead point to conspiracy theories suggesting that renewed American involvement is fueling the resurgence of terrorist groups.

In February 2025, US Congressman Scott Perry claimed that the US Agency for International Development (USAID) had funded Boko Haram, but provided no evidence for the allegation. The claim was later rejected by Richard Mills, then the US ambassador to Nigeria. However, the statement had already gained traction in public discourse and on social media.

American officials such as Congressmen Ted Cruz and Chris Smith have also made statements that have fueled conspiracy theories about a “Christian genocide” in Nigeria. While attacks on Christians have occurred, including a recent incident at a church in Kaduna state, Muslim communities have also been targeted.

Experts say that terrorist groups have long operated indiscriminately, and the current surge in violence reveals that the insurgency has adapted its tactics and methods. The attacks are part of a broader regional disorder across the Lake Chad basin and the Sahel.

Recent attacks demonstrate that the insurgent ecosystem has become more organized and adaptive, with the ISIL affiliate in West Africa Province (ISWAP) emerging as a major threat. ISWAP has consolidated its presence in parts of the Lake Chad basin and expanded into Sambisa Forest, making it a significant challenge for authorities.

The insurgency is sustained by factors such as terrain, supply routes, local economies, and the ability to move men and materiel through weak or absent state spaces. The sheer scale of the theatre itself makes policing territories comparable in size to entire European countries a daunting task.

Experts emphasize that a serious analysis of what is happening in northern Nigeria requires clarity about the attacks’ implications. This includes understanding the insurgency’s adaptation, its connection to regional disorder, and its underlying domestic vulnerabilities such as poverty, educational exclusion, weak governance, and erosion of social contracts.

Source: Al Jazeera