Investors face uncertainty amid Iran conflict and economic sanctions

Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker Uses Social Media to Influence Market Sentiment

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, has been using social media platform X to shape market sentiment during the ongoing US-Israel conflict. In a series of posts, Ghalibaf has advised investors to approach market-moving headlines with skepticism, citing “fake news” as a tool used to manipulate financial and oil markets.

Ghalibaf’s posts have also included humorous remarks, such as warning that “paper oil market” firms hired to influence oil futures may not be able to translate their efforts into actual fuel prices. However, analysts say that behind the bluster, there are more serious calculations at play.

Iran has been using asymmetric warfare tactics, including exploiting key economic pressure points, to show its ability to influence US markets. This was evident in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Gulf to the open ocean and carries 20% of the world’s oil and LNG supplies. The strait’s closure led to a significant increase in oil prices and placed economic pressure on the rest of the world.

As part of this approach, Ghalibaf recently threatened financial institutions that have any role in financing US military assets in the Middle East. He wrote: “US treasury bonds are soaked in Iranians’ blood… We monitor your portfolios. This is your final notice.”

Analysts believe that falling stock markets, rising energy prices, and higher interest rates will eventually force US President Donald Trump to retreat from military action and seek a diplomatic solution.

Ghalibaf’s use of social media also appears to be leveraging Trump’s own behavior on the platform. Observers have noted that Trump often makes aggressive statements at the weekend when markets are closed, only to back down in time for markets to open. This pattern has led to the acronym TACO – “Trump always chickens out” – being used by traders willing to bet on Trump’s willingness to back down.

Iran appears to have understood how to push Trump’s pressure points, according to Middle East analyst Zeidon Alkinani. A prolonged and unpredictable conflict can rattle global markets, and even brief shifts in tempo may be interpreted as attempts to stabilize investor confidence and limit economic fallout.

Source: Al Jazeera