Southern Yemens future to be shaped by local forces and events

Security Fragmentation in Southern Yemen Governorates

A complex security structure has emerged across southern Yemen governorates under government control, comprising official units and those established during the war. These formations are linked to state institutions or have been supported by external actors, such as the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council’s forces.

Recent months have seen efforts to restructure this landscape following the STC’s dissolution in January 2026. However, security control remains uneven across governorates, with some units being redeployed while others’ fates remain unknown.

In Aden, the temporary capital, security agencies operate within a complex structure. Units formerly affiliated with the STC have seen personnel and equipment disappear or been renamed/redeployed. Longstanding networks of influence persist, reflecting attempts to rebalance power rather than resolving the situation.

The integration of military and security formations into Ministries of Defence and Interior is a key challenge. The state seeks to end parallel security authority, but this process faces complex challenges, including differing funding sources, varying political loyalties, and concerns among commanders about losing local influence.

Government efforts are focused on establishing a stable security environment, which requires regional support and international backing. The Saudi-Emirati dispute has significant implications for the balance of power and stability in southern Yemen.

The government’s approach is cautious, as hasty moves could reignite internal clashes. The transition to a state monopoly on force requires political consensus and coordination among various stakeholders.

Source: Al Jazeera