Strait of Hormuz faces potential security threats in multiple scenarios

Here is a rewritten version of the article in a neutral newsroom style:

Three possible scenarios have emerged in response to the ongoing United States-Israeli conflict with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan is playing a key role in mediating between the two countries.

One scenario involves regional states, primarily from the Gulf Cooperation Council and Jordan, taking independent military action to reopen the strait without direct US involvement. This could be driven by economic pressure, exhaustion of diplomatic options, or domestic political considerations.

However, this approach poses challenges due to “capability asymmetry.” The Gulf states have invested in modernizing their militaries, but they lack integrated naval power projection capabilities and anti-air defense systems to counter the layered asymmetric threat posed by Iran. The stability of a military coalition is also uncertain, as each state has an incentive to free-ride on others’ contributions.

A second scenario envisions regional states formally aligning with the US in a coordinated coercive military campaign to restore freedom of navigation, with full US operational leadership. This would involve Gulf states allowing the US army to use their bases and providing political cover and supplementary military assets.

The third scenario involves phased negotiations between Iran and the US, facilitated by Pakistan’s diplomatic channel. The International Energy Agency has characterized this disruption as the most acute supply disruption in the history of the global energy market.

Pakistan’s unique position allows it to communicate with both Tehran and Washington, which could play a crucial role in mediating between the two countries. However, any scenario that materializes without prior diplomatic engagement risks collapsing Pakistan’s mediatory channel.

Source: Al Jazeera