Wall Street bets on Trumps war news face strict regulatory oversight

US Traders Make Large Bets on War News Amid Suspicious Activity

Traders have placed large bets worth hundreds of millions of dollars on US-Israeli war news since the start of the conflict with Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based online platform. The platform has seen an increase in suspiciously well-timed trades that suggest knowledge of key White House decision-making.

Polymarket gained popularity during the 2024 US presidential election but has become associated with suspected insider trading since January. Researchers have tracked dozens of examples of anonymous new accounts betting on event outcomes, including the February 28 US-Israeli strikes that began the Iran war.

As of Wednesday, there were 355 live prediction markets on Polymarket linked to outcomes in the war, such as the identity of the next leader of Iran and the date of a US-Iran nuclear deal. An independent analyst found 38 accounts that he believes belong to one person, netting over $2 million in correct bets.

Researchers look for red flags in suspicious betting, including practices like “wallet splitting” or dividing up bets among multiple accounts to avoid detection. They also note the importance of a wallet’s history, with new wallets often being created to conceal ties to previous activities.

In addition to Polymarket, Wall Street traders have made well-timed trades worth millions of dollars since Trump announced his decision to delay threatened attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. The price of oil has fluctuated wildly in response to the conflict.

Fintech platforms and traders are under scrutiny as researchers investigate suspicious activity.

Source: Al Jazeera