Iran Leadership Uncertain After Series of Assassination Attacks

Tehran’s Power Dynamics Under Scrutiny Following Assassination of Security Chief

The assassination of Ali Larijani, Iran’s secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, has raised questions about who will lead the country. Larijani was a prominent figure in the government, taking on a key role after the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top military and political figures.

Mojtaba Khamenei has been announced as his father’s successor as supreme leader, but US officials claim he is wounded, and analysts note that he has never held an executive role. This has left uncertainty about the chain of command in Tehran and who the most powerful figures are.

Historian Reza H Akbari stated that while there are mechanisms and constitutional processes in place, specific names might be harder to guess. The number of assassinations could lead to lesser-known entities assuming powerful positions or less transparency.

Analysts mentioned several individuals who may play important roles, including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Saeed Jalili, Ali Akbar Salehi, Hassan Rouhani, and Mohsen Rezaie. Other IRGC figures, such as Ahmad Vahidi and leaders in the Basij, are also expected to be influential.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei led Iran for 36 years, guiding domestic and international decision-making and expanding the influence of the IRGC. Despite having a single leader for nearly four decades, the Iranian system is somewhat decentralized.

Analysts noted that the killing of Khamenei and other figures has had an impact on Iran’s chain of command, but it is unlikely to uproot the regime. Mohamad Elmasry stated that there will always be another leader, and he does not believe this will suggest a collapse of the Iranian regime.

The decapitation efforts have also raised questions about who will assume powerful positions or lead to less transparency. Analysts emphasized that the Iranian system is durable and built to withstand such events.

Source: Al Jazeera